The Mentawais won't always be like this - go surf them soon

The big quake is coming to the Mentawais

If you've always wanted to surf the Mentawais (Siberut, Sipora, North Pagai, South Pagai) but just haven't gotten around to it, you should go soon.  I hate to cry wolf here but Sumatra has been very seismically active lately.  There were TWO major quakes of Northern Sumatra, the Christmas Tsunami quake that killed hundreds of thousands of people and THEN another huge 8+ quake off Nias in March 2005.  The Nias quake rearranged (reminder to self - find photo of uplift in Simeulue) surf breaks all around Nias, but didn't really affect the Mentawais.  When we sailed by the SE corner of simeulue we saw where the former waterline had been lifted up by about half the height of a coconut tree - 15 or 20 feet out of the water.  Yes there are new breaks and some breaks got better, but most breaks got worse.  Bawa, the famous swell-magnet right in the Hinakos is not nearly what it was before.  Forget about catching it like Tom Curren did in the Rip Curl search video from 1994.

Whether the upcoming Mentawai quake pushes the breaks up or down, any change to the bottom contours of a perfect wave like HT's or Macaroni's is a change for the worse.  Nature does not by default create perfect ruler-edged reefs - great surf spots are a freak of nature, even in indonesia.  Also note that it's the offshore reefs that refract swell almost 180 degrees around to HT's lineup - if they submerge or rise that spot may stop working entirely.  

Crowds are lower than they have been for years

A few days back I got a mass marketing email from Sean Murphy the president of Waterways travel.  I've pasted in his message below in quotes.  What he's saying echoes what I've noticed on booking sites and heard from other sources.

"

WHY:
The Mentawai Islands are experiencing a downturn in traffic for a variety of reasons.  Last year was one of the worst seasons in the Ments in recent history due to slightly less swell than previous years combined with persistent south wind conditions.  When the winds blow from the South in the Mentawais there are only a few breaks that favor this wind such as Thunders and Burger World which also pick up quite a lot of swell.  In attempts to get their passengers the best surf possible many of the boats congregated at the few spots which were best given the conditions.  As a result, many charters experienced crowded conditions, unfavorable winds, or lack of swell given the breaks chosen by the captains and passengers on-board.

Compounding the poor conditions many experienced last year, it was apparent to all who made the journey that there are a number of upscale land camps under development which have already opened, or were scheduled to open for the 2007 season.  Although this is true, the land based resorts are experiencing their own problems this year.  Accessing the land camps has proven difficult, often requiring unreliable local ferry transportation.  Macaronis Resort had based its schedule around a sea plane operation which has just been cancelled effectively resulting in the cancellation of all bookings for the 2007 season.  Other currently operational resorts such as Aloita Resort (Telescopes/Playground) and Katiet Villas (HT’s Lances etc) have wide open availability for the 2007 season as a result of late confirmation of flights from Padang to Rokot (Mentawais).  Katiet and Aloita are not listed under specials below.  Contact our office if interested in Mentawai land based resort for current detail.

Finally, WaterWays has been approached by many boats over the past 2-6 weeks that are either represented by other surf travel operators, or have been operating independently, to see if we could produce any groups for them this season.  For the most part we have turned these boats away preferring to stick exclusively with our current fleet which is proven and thankfully mostly booked this season.

Given that most the resorts and many of the yachts have the bulk of their space remaining available at this time, it is unlikely that their occupancy levels will increase significantly.  Most people booking a 14+ day trip to Indonesia book well in advance, especially if trying to coordinate a group.  Our March/April groups have been surfing with no crowds even at the big name breaks – empty lineups.

WITH ALL THE ABOVE FACTORS IN PLAY, THIS IS THE BEST TIME FOR THOSE WHO ARE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION AND GET TO INDO TO EXPERIENCE THE BEST SURF IN THE WORLD"